The Rising of the Moon

An ongoing synopsis of politics, government and public policy. Those dreary boring things that effect the lives of each and every one of us.

Wednesday, December 01, 2004


This is elevated from the comments to an earlier post about FISHY EXIT POLLS
The following from Michelle:

I heard a guy on MPR a couple of weeks ago who was an exit poll designer.
He said the discrepancy was most likely due to a design error in the model
of the exit poll, which placed too much emphasis on a younger voter turn
out, a turn out that would likely favor Kerry. The young voter turn out was
quite a bit smaller than the exit poll model had predicted -- thus
explaining why Kerry was always favored in the exit poll and Bush always had
the advantage in the actual vote. I don't know if this is correct or not,
but it sounded (sadly) plausible. I have also heard that although Kerry
conceded, it is not legally binding, and he and his team of lawyers are
working fast and furiously behind the scenes to see if they can assemble a
legitimate case of enough voter fraud to turn the election. They would wait
to announce it until after the holidays, choosing wisely not to open
themselves to claims of "disrupting the nation while it is engaged at war,"
with all the big Fallujah battles. I don't know. But it seems a smart way
to work, if true.

The part about "concession" is true. There's nothing in the Constitution about concessions. However, what Kerry's very quick concession did do was take the eyes and noses of CorpMedia off of the vote count and the election itself. It's all done as far as they're concerned.

As far as the exit polls. This still doesn't explain why the polls were so dramatically off in only specific counties. And these were counties with the newest kinds of voting machines, none of which have paper trails. If the model, emphasizing the word "the" in the singular, it would have been consistently off across the board. And it wasn't. In most areas it was spot on, but those areas were not hotly contested.


At 11:01 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well, you're right, an incorrectly constructed model does not explain the
lack of consistency across the counties with the variations. Let's hope
John Kerry still has a huge crack team of lawyers working on this, and will
be able to surprise us after the holidays with solid evidence of enough
errors to throw the whole election into question. THen we can follow the
example of the Ukranian people! I know is raising funds for
recounts in quite a few states.


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