The Rising of the Moon

An ongoing synopsis of politics, government and public policy. Those dreary boring things that effect the lives of each and every one of us.

Friday, November 12, 2004


seems like I'm not the only one to question the validity of the recent vote counts. So far there have been a lot of questions regarding the difference between the exit polls and the "actual counts," and a few apologist suggestions. Dr. Freeman seems to agree that it's highly unlikely that US exit polling has suddenly become totally worthless and unreliable:

posted on BuzzFlash

<>In "The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy," Dr. Steven F. Freeman says:

"As much as we can say in social science that something is impossible, it is impossible that the discrepancies between predicted and actual vote counts in the three critical battleground states [Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania] of the 2004 election could have been due to chance or random error."

The odds of those exit poll statistical anomalies occurring by chance are 250,000,000 to one. 250 MILLION to ONE.

He concludes the paper with this:

"Systematic fraud or mistabulation is a premature conclusion, but the election's unexplained exit poll discrepancies make it an unavoidable hypothesis, one that is the responsibility of the media, academia, polling agencies, and the public to investigate."


complete report here
Here's a good explanation of what it all means from Political Animal


At 1:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I heard a guy on MPR a couple of weeks ago who was an exit poll designer.
He said the discrepancy was most likely due to a design error in the model
of the exit poll, which placed too much emphasis on a younger voter turn
out, a turn out that would likely favor Kerry. The young voter turn out was
quite a bit smaller than the exit poll model had predicted -- thus
explaining why Kerry was always favored in the exit poll and Bush always had
the advantage in the actual vote. I don't know if this is correct or not,
but it sounded (sadly) plausible. I have also heard that although Kerry
conceded, it is not legally binding, and he and his team of lawyers are
working fast and furiously behind the scenes to see if they can assemble a
legitimate case of enough voter fraud to turn the election. They would wait
to announce it until after the holidays, choosing wisely not to open
themselves to claims of "disrupting the nation while it is engaged at war,"
with all the big Fallujah battles. I don't know. But it seems a smart way
to work, if true.

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